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Estimated 2σ error (95% confidence) in comparing nearby years of global temperature (Fig.

Meteorological stations are sparse in the Arctic, but the estimated strong warm anomaly there in 2005 is consistent with record low sea ice concentration and Arctic temperature anomalies inferred from infrared satellite data (9).Finally, we compare paleoclimate and recent data, using the Earth's history to estimate the magnitude of global warming that is likely to constitute dangerous human-made climate change.Global surface temperature in more than a century of instrumental data is recorded in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies analysis for 2005. 1, uses documented procedures for data over land (4), satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST) since 1982 (5), and a ship-based analysis for earlier years (6).Climate effects are felt locally, but the global distribution of climate response to many global climate forcings is reasonably congruent in climate models (1), suggesting that the global metric is surprisingly useful.We will argue further, consistent with earlier discussion (2, 3), that measurements in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans provide a good indication of global temperature change.

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